MARYLAND — A growing divide between two major global weather models is setting the stage for a high-stakes forecast battle ahead of the Sunday–Monday winter storm, with dramatically different snowfall implications for Baltimore and surrounding areas. At the heart of the disagreement is how the upper-level trough evolves over the central and eastern United States…
ARKANSAS — A developing surface low positioned over the Mid-South is raising concerns for tornado potential this afternoon, as forecast data shows strong low-level instability and favorable vorticity across parts of eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, and western Tennessee. New high-resolution model guidance suggests that while mid-level temperatures could limit widespread convection, the setup may still…
MARYLAND — A developing Sunday–Monday storm system for February 23 is creating growing concern across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with new model guidance showing dramatically different outcomes depending on how close the low-pressure center tracks to the coast. Ensemble projections reveal a cluster of possible storm positions offshore, with central pressures ranging from the 1000s…
OHIO — A heightened tornado threat is unfolding across parts of the Midwest today, with forecasters adding a 10% probability of significant tornadoes (EF2 or stronger) across portions of Illinois and Indiana. The updated outlook places much of the Ohio Valley under an enhanced risk, signaling the potential for damaging winds, large hail, and a…
ILLINOIS, INDIANA AND OHIO — A split severe weather setup is unfolding across the Midwest today, with northern Illinois, northern Indiana and much of Ohio facing a hail threat, while southern Illinois and southern Indiana sit in a corridor where a tornado — potentially significant — cannot be ruled out. Forecasters say the key dividing…
INDIANA — A dangerous severe weather setup is unfolding across the Ohio Valley today, with southeast Illinois into central and southern Indiana now under an enhanced risk for long-track supercells capable of producing a strong tornado. Latest short-range guidance shows a volatile environment developing from late morning through the evening hours, with storms expected to…
MID-ATLANTIC STATES — The highest probability of at least 3 inches of snowfall Sunday into Monday is currently centered across Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia, Delaware and southern Pennsylvania, as a developing coastal storm threatens to rapidly intensify off the East Coast. Forecast guidance indicates the Mid-Atlantic has the strongest signal for accumulating snow between February…
MICHIGAN — A powerful winter storm is wrapping moisture northwest into entrenched cold air across the Upper Great Lakes, setting the stage for widespread snowfall and potentially extreme totals near the U.S.–Canada International Border. Forecast guidance shows the heaviest snow focusing across northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and especially Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, where localized totals could…
EAST COAST – A developing winter storm signal is beginning to show for late Sunday into Monday, with the latest ECMWF guidance highlighting a complex but potentially favorable setup for a coastal system impacting parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. While this is not a locked-in forecast, the large-scale pattern is aligning in a way…
EAST COAST – The potential for a late-weekend into early-next-week Nor’easter remains on the table, and the latest ECMWF guidance shows a pattern that could still deliver a meaningful coastal storm — if the timing and interaction of several embedded energy pieces align close enough to shore. The setup is complex, featuring multiple shortwaves racing…