Author: Colton Hayes

UNITED STATES — A notable disagreement has emerged in the forecast for Sunday night into Monday, as the AI-driven European model (ECMWF AIFS) is tracking a significantly farther-north snowstorm compared to nearly every other major solution. While most traditional guidance keeps the system suppressed to the south — focusing heavier snow offshore or across the…

UNITED STATES — A multi-day severe weather outbreak is unfolding across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast, with thunderstorms expected to intensify from west Texas and Oklahoma today, spreading into eastern Texas, Louisiana, and eventually the central and eastern Gulf Coast states by Sunday. Forecasters have outlined a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) to…

UTAH — Confidence is increasing that parts of northern Utah could see their first meaningful valley snowfall of the season next week, as forecast models come into stronger agreement on a sharp cold front sweeping into the state by Wednesday morning. According to the latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 2.5 km guidance, rain is…

UNITED STATES — While much of the country is expected to ride out a generally mild pattern through late February and into early March, new longer-range European model guidance is hinting at a potential colder turn during the back half of March, particularly across the central and northern United States. The latest ECMWF 14-day ensemble…

CALIFORNIA — A prolonged and powerful winter pattern is poised to unload massive snowfall totals across the Sierra Nevada over the next week, with some high-elevation locations potentially surpassing 100 inches of accumulation if current projections verify. Latest ECMWF (European) model guidance through February 22 shows a broad swath of extreme snow totals stretching the…

MARYLAND — Nearly three weeks after a single significant winter storm swept through the Mid-Atlantic, much of the region is still blanketed in measurable snow — an unusual and impressive sight for mid-February outside of the higher elevations. Current snow depth analysis shows that areas across western Maryland, northern Virginia, Washington D.C., and parts of…

UNITED STATES — The latest 00Z European (EURO) model run, about 120 hours out, is keeping a significant winter storm signal alive for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast — with a heavy snow axis stretching from central Pennsylvania through northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, and into southern New England. While still several days away and…

UNITED STATES — Any brief moderation in temperatures across the Northeast may prove short-lived, as long-range ensemble guidance shows another surge of cold air poised to spill south from Canada into New England, New York and the Great Lakes toward the final week of February. Latest extended-range model data valid around February 24 through early…

FLORIDA — All eyes are on the radar this Sunday as a fast-moving line of rain threatens to move into central and northeast Florida later in the day — right as fans prepare for the Daytona 500. Forecast models show a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms sweeping east across the Southeast, with the main…

TEXAS — Parts of West Texas and the Permian Basin could see isolated severe thunderstorms Friday evening, February 13, with hail emerging as the primary concern from Midland–Odessa south and west toward Fort Stockton and Alpine. Forecast guidance indicates a Level 1 out of 5 Marginal Risk for severe weather across portions of the region,…