East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia Face Midweek Rain-to-Snow Transition With Mountain Snow Chances and Dangerous Cold Wind Chills

TENNESSEE — A midweek winter system is set to move across the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing a rain-to-snow transition, limited valley accumulations, higher snow chances in the mountains, and very cold wind chills that could pose additional hazards late this week.

Forecast guidance from the National Weather Service in Morristown shows that while most lower-elevation communities are unlikely to see meaningful snow accumulation, higher elevations of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia have a much better chance of picking up measurable snowfall, followed by a sharp drop in temperatures.

Rain Changes to Snow Wednesday Night Into Thursday

Current forecasts indicate precipitation will begin mainly as rain in valley locations Wednesday night, gradually mixing with or changing to snow as colder air moves in overnight. However, probabilities for light snow accumulation in valleys remain low, suggesting most lower-elevation roads will stay mainly wet or see only brief slushy periods.

In contrast, colder temperatures at higher elevations will allow snow to accumulate more efficiently, especially across the Appalachian terrain.

Snow Probability Breakdown by Elevation

Updated probability maps highlight a clear elevation-driven split across the region:

• Valley and lower elevations:
  Most locations show only a 10–30% chance of 1 inch or more, including areas such as Knoxville, Morristown, and much of the Tennessee Valley.
• Foothills and plateau areas:
  Snow probabilities rise modestly, generally 20–40%, especially north and east of Knoxville.
• Higher elevations of East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia:
  Locations near Gatlinburg, Mountain City, Johnson City, Wise, and Abingdon show 40–60% chances of at least 1 inch of snow, with localized probabilities for 2 inches or more approaching 20–30% in the highest terrain.

This setup favors a few inches of snow in the mountains, while nearby valleys see little more than flakes or brief accumulation.

Cold Wind Chills Become the Bigger Concern

Behind the system, strong cold air advection and gusty winds will push wind chills to dangerously low levels late Thursday into Thursday night.

Forecast minimum wind chills include:

• Single digits across much of East Tennessee
• Near or below zero in the higher elevations of Southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee
• Teens or colder even in typically milder valley locations such as Chattanooga and Knoxville

These conditions increase the risk of frostbite with prolonged exposure, particularly in the mountains where wind speeds will be stronger.

Travel and Safety Impacts

While widespread winter storm conditions are not expected, localized impacts remain possible:

• Mountain roads may become snow-covered or slick
• Early Thursday morning travel in higher elevations could be hazardous
• Cold exposure risks increase significantly Thursday night

Residents are advised to dress in layers, limit time outdoors during the coldest periods, and use caution when traveling through mountain passes.

Bottom Line

This system looks manageable for valleys but more impactful in the mountains, where accumulating snow and biting wind chills will remind the region that winter is far from over. While snowfall totals should stay modest overall, the combination of snow and cold will make late-week conditions feel harsher than earlier this month.

Stay with Waldron News for continued updates, local impacts, and any changes to the forecast as this midweek winter system approaches.