Lake Effect Snow Intensifies Across Western and Central New York as Bitter Cold Locks In Through Sunday
WESTERN & CENTRAL NEW YORK — A prolonged burst of lake effect snow driven by bitter Arctic cold is setting up across large parts of western and central New York, with snowfall totals expected to vary sharply from town to town through Sunday morning. Forecasters say some communities may see just a couple inches, while others — directly under persistent snow bands — could end up with plowable accumulations approaching a foot.
Lake Effect Bands Expected to Linger Longer Than First Thought
Latest analysis shows a continued favorable wind flow off Lake Ontario, allowing lake effect snow to hold on longer than initially projected, potentially lasting into early Sunday. While individual snow showers may not be extreme at any given moment, the long-duration nature of this setup means steady accumulation over time.
Meteorologists tracking the system note that snowfall is likely to build gradually rather than all at once, which increases the chance for meaningful totals in areas repeatedly hit by snow squalls.
Heaviest Snow Axis From Rochester East Toward Oswego and the Finger Lakes
Based on the snowfall projection map, the highest-risk corridor for heavier totals (6–12 inches) stretches from Rochester eastward through Webster, Walworth, Savannah, Seneca Falls, and toward Oswego. These areas sit squarely in the zone where lake effect squalls are most likely to persist and regenerate.
Communities including Greece, Avon, Canandaigua, and parts of the northern Finger Lakes could also see significant accumulations if snow bands wobble or stall for several hours.
Lighter Totals West and South, But Travel Still Impacted
Areas farther west and south — including Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Batavia, Wyoming County, Dansville, Penn Yan, and Ithaca — are expected to see lower totals overall, generally in the 1–6 inch range. However, even these locations are not immune to brief bursts of heavy snow, especially overnight.
Because lake effect snow is notoriously localized, small shifts in wind direction could quickly change who gets hit hardest.
Bitter Cold Will Limit Road Treatment Effectiveness
The incoming Arctic air mass will keep temperatures well below freezing, reducing the effectiveness of road salt and chemical treatments. As a result, snow-covered and slick roadways are expected even where snowfall rates remain modest.
Strong winds on Saturday will also whip snow around, creating reduced visibility, drifting, and rapidly changing travel conditions — especially on open stretches of highway.
What to Expect Through the Weekend
- Snowfall: Highly variable, ranging from 1–3 inches to localized 6–12 inch totals
- Greatest impact: Rochester to Oswego corridor and northern Finger Lakes
- Timing: Ongoing through Saturday, potentially lingering into early Sunday
- Travel: Hazardous at times due to snow-covered roads, drifting, and poor visibility
Bottom Line
This setup may not produce a single blockbuster burst of snow, but the combination of persistent lake effect bands and bitter cold makes for a harsh winter weekend across western and central New York. Residents in snowbelt communities should be prepared for steadily accumulating snow, difficult travel, and rapidly changing conditions.
For continued local weather updates, forecasts, and impact tracking, stay with WaldronNews.com, your source for regional weather coverage and developing conditions.