Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. Face Rising Risk of a Major Snowstorm as Euro Model Shows High Odds for 12+ Inches

UNITED STATES — A potentially significant winter storm is taking shape for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, with new European ensemble model data showing meaningful odds of at least 12 inches of snow across Maryland, Washington D.C., and northern to central Virginia later this weekend.

The latest probability map from the European Ensemble Prediction System, which runs the storm scenario 50 different ways, highlights this region as the core risk zone for a high-impact snow event between Saturday night and Monday morning.

European Model Shows Unusually Strong Snow Signal

According to the Euro ensemble guidance, the Washington D.C. metro area currently has a 30–40% probability of receiving 12 inches or more of snow. Just south of D.C., across central Virginia and portions of southern Maryland, those probabilities increase into the 40–60% range.

For ensemble guidance at this lead time, those numbers are notable and concerning, indicating that a significant winter storm outcome is firmly on the table rather than a low-confidence scenario.

Meteorologists generally view 30%+ probabilities for a foot of snow several days out as a strong signal that a major event is possible, even if final totals are still uncertain.

Why This Setup Is Being Taken Seriously

The broader atmospheric pattern supports the snow risk. A strong area of high pressure to the north is supplying cold air into the Mid-Atlantic, while a developing storm system to the south is expected to move moisture into that cold environment.

This combination increases confidence that precipitation falls as snow rather than rain, especially across Maryland, D.C., and northern Virginia.

Temperatures during the storm window are projected to be near or below freezing, which would allow snow to accumulate efficiently if heavier bands develop.

Probabilities, Not a Guarantee — But a Real Risk

It is important to stress that these numbers represent probabilities, not a locked-in forecast. With the storm still several days away, track and timing adjustments could shift the heaviest snow axis north or south.

However, the ensemble signal explains why forecasters are taking this setup seriously as early as now. Even if the storm trends weaker, the ceiling for impact remains high, particularly for travel, power disruptions, and snow removal operations.

What to Watch Going Forward

Key factors that will determine final outcomes include:

• The exact track of the surface low
• How firmly cold air holds in place across the Mid-Atlantic
• Whether heavier snow bands set up near or just south of Washington D.C.
• Any late shift that could concentrate snow totals over a smaller area

Updates over the next 24–48 hours will be critical in refining snowfall expectations.

Bottom Line

There is now credible model support for a high-impact snowstorm affecting Maryland, Virginia, and the Washington D.C. metro area this weekend. While nothing is guaranteed yet, the European ensemble probabilities alone justify heightened awareness and preparation.

Residents across the Mid-Atlantic should continue monitoring forecasts closely as confidence increases and details become clearer.