Mid-Atlantic Snow Outlook Shows 20–50% Odds for Measurable Snow in DC, Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania Over Next 10 Days

MID-ATLANTIC — New forecast data from the European weather model suggests parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast may see increasing chances of measurable snowfall over the next 10 days, even as the region continues to run below average for seasonal snow totals so far this winter.

The probability map highlights a 20–50% chance of at least 1 inch of snow across a broad stretch of the region, including Washington, D.C., Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New York, signaling that winter may not be finished just yet.

What the Latest Snow Probability Map Shows

Forecast guidance from the European modeling system indicates a gradient of snow chances across the East Coast:

• 40–50% probability for at least 1 inch of snow across central and northern Pennsylvania, extending into parts of northern Maryland and southern New York
• 30–40% probability across New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and areas north of Washington, D.C.
• 20–30% probability across central Virginia, southern Maryland, and the immediate D.C. metro area

These probabilities represent the chance of at least one accumulating snowfall event during the next 10 days, not guaranteed totals. However, they suggest that cold air and storm tracks may align more favorably than earlier in the winter.

Washington, D.C. Snow Deficit: Should Residents Be Concerned?

Despite the improving forecast signals, snowfall totals so far remain modest across much of the Mid-Atlantic.

Washington, D.C. has recorded about 1.5 inches of snow so far this season, which is roughly 1.4 inches below average for this point in January. While that may sound concerning, climatology shows that only about 20% of a typical winter’s snowfall usually occurs by mid-January.

In fact, some past seasons with similar early-season snow deficits ended up producing above-average snowfall totals, including one comparable year that finished with 18.3 inches of snow by season’s end.

Why Snow Can Still Rebound Later in the Season

Meteorologists note that January and February are historically the most productive snow months for the Mid-Atlantic. Even a single well-timed coastal system can significantly boost seasonal totals, especially when colder air becomes established.

The current outlook suggests:

• Colder air masses dipping farther south
• Increased storm activity along the East Coast
• Higher odds of wintry precipitation inland rather than rain

While this does not guarantee major snowstorms, it keeps winter weather firmly in play for the region.

What to Watch Over the Next 10 Days

Residents across D.C., Maryland, Virginia, and Pennsylvania should monitor upcoming forecasts closely, particularly during periods when:

• Cold air is already in place
• Storm systems track along or just offshore of the East Coast
• Nighttime temperatures remain below freezing

Even marginal setups can produce localized accumulations, especially north and west of major cities.

Bottom Line for the Mid-Atlantic

The snow season is not over, and while totals so far have been underwhelming, forecast probabilities now support at least a realistic chance of measurable snow before late January.

A slow start does not rule out a respectable finish.

For continued winter weather updates, regional forecasts, and developing storm coverage, follow Waldron News for the latest analysis and local impacts.