New Jersey to Long Island Braces for 7–11 Inches of Snow as Coastal Band Sets Up North of Philadelphia and New York City
UNITED STATES — A sharp coastal storm setup for February 15–16 is drawing attention across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with the latest model guidance locking in a narrow but intense snow band from central New Jersey through Long Island and into southern New England.
Forecast maps show a pronounced gradient in snowfall totals, with significantly lower amounts just south of the heaviest band — a shift of even 75 to 100 miles could dramatically change who sees plowable snow versus lighter accumulations.
Tight Snowfall Gradient Across the Mid-Atlantic
One projection highlights the following potential totals:
- Central and northern New Jersey: Around 7–8 inches
- Long Island, NY: Near 7–11 inches, highest toward eastern sections
- Southern Connecticut and coastal Rhode Island: Around 8–11 inches
- Eastern Pennsylvania: Lower totals west of the heaviest band
- Maryland (including much of the Delmarva region): Around 3 inches or less
The snowfall map shows the most intense banding aligned roughly west-to-east from near the Philadelphia metro region into central and eastern Long Island, with peak amounts potentially exceeding 9 inches in localized areas.
NAM Model Highlights Strong Coastal Banding
The 12 km NAM guidance valid late February 16 depicts a concentrated snow shield stretching from eastern Pennsylvania through northern New Jersey and across Long Island.
Notable features include:
- 5–7 inches across much of central New Jersey
- 7–9+ inches over parts of Long Island
- A sharp northern cutoff with lighter amounts into upstate New York
- Lower totals south into Maryland and the lower Delmarva
This setup suggests a classic coastal front or deformation band scenario, where intense snowfall rates develop along a narrow corridor while areas just south may see mixing or reduced accumulation.
North-South Shift Remains the Key Forecast Challenge
Forecast commentary indicates that earlier projections relied on specific setup criteria, including measurable rainfall in Southern California days before the event as part of a broader atmospheric pattern signal. That rainfall threshold was not met, which introduces uncertainty in how far north the snow shield ultimately tracks.
If the heavier band were to shift north by even 75 to 100 miles:
- New York City totals could increase significantly
- Northern New Jersey and southern New England could see higher-end impacts
- Areas farther south into Maryland could see minimal snow
Conversely, a southward shift would bring heavier totals closer to the Philadelphia metro and possibly reduce amounts across Long Island.
Timing and Impact Window
Current projections place the most significant snowfall during the late February 15 into February 16 timeframe, with peak intensity during overnight and early morning hours.
Potential impacts include:
- Hazardous travel conditions
- Reduced visibility during heavier bursts
- Snow-covered roadways across central New Jersey and Long Island
- Slower commutes Monday morning
Because the heaviest snow appears to be confined to a relatively narrow band, some communities may see dramatically different totals despite being only counties apart.
Why This Storm Is So Sensitive to Small Track Changes
This system’s snow distribution depends heavily on:
- Exact coastal low placement
- Mid-level deformation band alignment
- Marginal temperature profiles near the coast
- North-south storm track wobble
Such setups are known for sharp accumulation cutoffs, meaning final totals may not be uniform even within short distances.
What Residents Should Monitor
Communities in:
- Central and northern New Jersey
- Long Island, New York
- Southern Connecticut and coastal Rhode Island
should closely monitor forecast updates over the next 24–36 hours.
Meanwhile, residents in Maryland, Delaware and southern Pennsylvania may see lighter totals unless the storm track trends south.
This February 15–16 storm is shaping up to be a classic narrow-band coastal snow event, with the potential for 7–11 inches from central New Jersey into Long Island, while areas just to the south may see far less.
Stay with WaldronNews.com for continuing updates as models refine the track and snowfall axis ahead of this developing Mid-Atlantic and Northeast winter system.