Tennessee and Kentucky Cumberland Plateau Snow Chances Stay Modest Wednesday Night as Rain Turns to Flurries and Light Accumulation

TENNESSEE – The midweek snow message for Tennessee and nearby parts of southern Kentucky is staying largely consistent: rain Wednesday morning transitions to snow Wednesday evening and Wednesday night, with the best chance for any measurable accumulation focused on the Cumberland Plateau—and even there, totals look mostly light.

The latest Cumberland Plateau briefing highlights a low-end winter event where many communities west of the Plateau may only notice flakes mixing in, while higher and more favored Plateau locations could pick up a dusting to around 1/2 inch, with only a limited chance of anything reaching or exceeding 1 inch.

What’s expected Wednesday into Wednesday night

The timing is straightforward:

• Wednesday morning: rain develops or continues across the region.
• Wednesday evening: colder air filters in, allowing rain to change to snow from west to east and especially across the Plateau.
• Wednesday night: snow showers or light snow lingers at times, then tapers off.

This setup favors brief, light snow rather than a long-duration storm. The bigger impact for many drivers is not depth—it’s the timing of the changeover and whether a thin coating forms during the colder nighttime hours.

West of the Cumberland Plateau: flurries, little to no accumulation

If you’re west of the Plateau—including much of the lower-elevation Middle Tennessee corridor—the expectation remains for flurries or light snow at some point, but with no accumulation expected.

That includes places that frequently watch these systems closely, only to end up with “flakes in the air” but bare pavement. In these areas, the snow is likely to be too light and too brief, and surface temperatures may not support sticking outside of isolated cold spots.

On the Plateau: dusting to 1/2 inch most likely

On the Cumberland Plateau, the forecast leans a bit more wintry, but still modest:

• The most likely scenario is 1/2 inch or less for many Plateau communities.
• A few favored spots could reach up to 1 inch if snow persists a bit longer after the transition.

Forecast probabilities shown in the briefing reinforce that message:

• Chance for 1/2 inch or less on the Plateau: 50–90%
• Chance for over 1 inch: 20–40%

In other words, it’s much more likely you end up with a light coating than a meaningful accumulation—though a localized inch is not impossible in the right band.

Where the “1 inch or greater” chance is highest

The “Chance of 1 Inch or Greater” map places the better probabilities over the eastern Plateau and nearby higher terrain.

Notable examples shown include:

• Around Crossville, Tennessee: roughly 32%
• Near Cookeville, Tennessee: roughly 19%
• Near Monticello, Kentucky: roughly 21%
• Lower odds farther southwest, including values like 7% near Dunlap and 0% near Chattanooga and much of the Nashville-area corridor.

The takeaway is that the odds increase as you move into the Plateau’s higher and more snow-favored zones, but even there, the “over 1 inch” signal is not the dominant outcome.

What impacts to watch for: slick spots, not deep snow

Even minor snow can cause issues when it falls at night and temperatures dip.

The most likely impacts are:

• Slick bridges and overpasses if temperatures drop quickly after the rain-to-snow switch
• Patchy slick spots on untreated secondary roads across the Plateau
• A light coating on grass, cars, decks, and elevated surfaces, even when main roads stay mostly wet

If you’re on the Plateau late Wednesday evening, treat this like a “thin-coating risk” setup: it doesn’t take much snow to create quick problems on colder surfaces, especially if there’s lingering moisture from the earlier rain.

Confidence and what could still change

The briefing notes medium confidence in timing and totals. That usually means the broad idea is solid—rain to snow, light amounts—but small shifts could still matter:

• If colder air arrives a bit earlier, the snow window lengthens and totals could tick up in favored Plateau spots.
• If precipitation exits too quickly, many areas just see a brief flurry burst and little accumulation.
• If temperatures stay marginal, sticking is mainly limited to grassy/elevated surfaces.

So while the expectation remains light, it’s still worth watching updates Wednesday afternoon for the most accurate timing of the changeover.

Bottom line

For Tennessee and nearby southern Kentucky, Wednesday’s system continues to look like a rain-to-snow transition event with light totals overall. West of the Cumberland Plateau, flurries are possible with no accumulation expected. On the Plateau, a dusting to 1/2 inch is the most likely outcome, with a lower-probability chance (generally 20–40%) for any spot to exceed 1 inch—highest near the more favored Plateau zones such as the Crossville area.

Are you west of the Plateau seeing only rain, or are you up on the Plateau expecting a coating? Share what you’re seeing Wednesday evening and keep following the Waldron website for local updates.