ECMWF Data Shows No Snow Expected in Alabama Through January 13 as Winter Focus Shifts to Midwest and Northeast States

ALABAMA — New long-range guidance from the European weather model indicates that Alabama is very unlikely to see any measurable snowfall through at least January 13, as winter storm activity and snow potential remain concentrated well north of the Deep South.

The latest ECMWF AIFS ensemble snowfall probability maps show a zero percent chance of 1 inch or more of snow across Alabama during this period, reinforcing a pattern of mild, snow-free conditions for the state while colder air and winter systems target other parts of the country.

ECMWF Snowfall Probability Map Highlights Sharp North–South Divide

The probability graphics clearly illustrate a strong gradient in snow chances across the United States. While much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast shows moderate to high probabilities for at least 1 inch of snow, the Southeast — including Alabama — remains entirely snow-free through mid-January.

Across Alabama, the map consistently shows no meaningful snow signal, even as winter weather potential increases farther north across states such as:

• Illinois
• Michigan
• Wisconsin
• Ohio
• Pennsylvania
• New York

This setup reflects a storm track that keeps cold air and moisture well removed from the Deep South.

Why Alabama Is Missing Out on Snow — For Now

The absence of snow potential across Alabama is tied to the current jet stream pattern, which favors:

• Colder air remaining locked across northern states
• Storm systems tracking west-to-east well north of the Gulf Coast
• Limited interaction between cold air and deep moisture over the Southeast

As a result, Alabama remains on the warm side of the winter pattern, preventing snow from developing even during passing systems.

Snow Lovers May Have to Wait Until Later in Winter

While January appears quiet for Alabama snow chances, forecasters caution that winter is far from over. Historically, some of the most impactful snow events in the southern U.S. have occurred in late winter, including February, March, and even early April, when pattern shifts allow Arctic air to push farther south.

At this time, however, ensemble guidance offers no indication of an imminent pattern change that would bring snow into Alabama before mid-January.

Contrast With Northern States Growing Sharper

As Alabama stays snow-free, northern regions continue to trend toward a more active winter pattern, with higher snowfall probabilities expanding across:

• The Upper Midwest
• The Great Lakes
• The interior Northeast

This contrast highlights how sharply divided the current winter pattern has become, separating snow-prone states from those experiencing a milder start to the season.

What to Expect Next

For Alabama residents, the takeaway is straightforward:

• No snow expected through January 13
• Winter impacts remain minimal in the near term
• Any meaningful snow chances would require a major pattern shift later this winter

Forecast confidence will continue to improve as January progresses and longer-range signals evolve.

Stay with WaldronNews.com for continued updates on winter weather trends, snowfall probabilities, and developing forecast changes across Alabama and the rest of the United States.