Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and North Carolina Could See a Snow-to-Rain Battle as “Downsloping” Tries to Dry Out the Southeast

KENTUCKY — A winter system taking shape for early Saturday is setting up a classic “snow north, rain south” scenario across the mid-South and Appalachians, with the sharpest impacts likely across Kentucky and Tennessee, and secondary impacts possible into Virginia and North Carolina depending on how quickly warmer air wins out overnight.

Based on the latest high-resolution guidance shown in the maps, the atmosphere is trying to do two things at once: keep cold air locked in across the interior (supporting snow) while pulling milder, wetter air northward (supporting rain). The result is a narrow corridor where precipitation type and totals can change quickly over short distances.

What the latest maps suggest right now

The guidance shown highlights a pronounced precipitation shield pushing northeast, with the cold side of the storm supporting widespread wintry precipitation across Kentucky and into parts of Tennessee. South of that, precipitation trends more toward rain.

At the same time, wind gust projections show a broad swath of 20–40 mph gusts, with pockets pushing higher near and just north of the strongest precipitation band—an important detail because wind can worsen travel and visibility during bursts of heavier snow.

Why “downsloping” matters for Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia

The “downsloping” mention is key because it often shows up on systems like this near the Appalachians.

Downsloping happens when air flows down the mountains and warms/drys as it descends. That can:

• Reduce snowfall totals on the downwind side of the mountains
• Erode precipitation faster than expected in some valleys
• Sharpen the edge of the snow shield, making the “cutoff” look abrupt on radar

In practical terms, it means parts of eastern Tennessee, southwest Virginia, and western North Carolina may see precipitation intensity fluctuate—sometimes looking impressive on one model frame, then noticeably weaker on another—especially late night into early morning.

Where snow looks most favored right now

While exact totals will keep shifting, the current layout favors:

• Central and eastern Kentucky for steadier snow coverage
• Portions of Tennessee near the TN/KY line where a mix zone may wobble north/south
• Higher elevations and colder interior pockets where surface temps hold below freezing longer

This is the type of setup where the heaviest snow can be “banded,” meaning some communities get a quick several inches while areas 20–40 miles away get far less.

Where a quick changeover could limit totals

A major theme in the maps is the warmer push from the south. Locations most at risk for a faster changeover to rain (or a messy mix) include:

• Middle and eastern Tennessee outside the coldest pockets
• Portions of Virginia closer to the warmer air intrusion
• Much of North Carolina outside the highest terrain (especially east of the mountains)

If the warmer air arrives earlier than expected, snowfall totals can drop quickly—not because precipitation disappears, but because it flips to rain.

Wind impacts: travel could get worse even where totals aren’t extreme

The wind gust map matters because even moderate snow combined with gusts can create:

• Reduced visibility during heavier bursts
• Blowing snow in open areas
• More difficult driving on bridges and exposed highways
• Increased chance of scattered tree/limb issues in places that pick up wet snow or ice

If you’re traveling overnight into early Saturday, plan for conditions to deteriorate quickly, especially across Kentucky and northern Tennessee, then gradually improve from west to east later in the day as the system shifts out.

What to watch over the next updates

This forecast will hinge on three details:

• Where the rain/snow line sets up (and how fast it moves)
• How strong the snow band becomes (banding can drastically change totals)
• How effective downsloping is in drying out or weakening precipitation near the Appalachians

If you live near the transition zone, expect the forecast to “wiggle” until the event is closer and temperatures/precip rates become clearer.

Bottom line

• Kentucky and Tennessee look like the primary battleground for accumulating snow and the most impactful travel conditions.
• Virginia and North Carolina may see a mix or edge-of-snow scenario, especially closer to the mountains, but totals could be limited if warmer air arrives faster.
• Gusty winds add another layer of concern, even where totals are not huge.

If you’re in the zone where snow and rain are competing, have a backup plan for early Saturday travel and keep an eye on local advisories as the storm gets closer.

Want to tell us what you’re seeing where you live—snow starting, rain mixing in, roads changing fast? Share your local update and keep following Waldron for the next forecast refresh.