UNITED STATES — As a multi-day severe weather stretch unfolds across parts of the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast, longer-range guidance is beginning to hint at what could follow once this three-day event winds down. New ensemble data from the GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) tracking the daily sum of CONUS Significant Tornado Parameter (SCP)…
DENVER, COLORADO — Increasing clouds will thicken across the Front Range today, with rain showers likely developing in Denver after 3 p.m., while colder air over higher terrain turns precipitation to snow above 7,000 feet — creating slick travel conditions in the mountains after dark. Early afternoon highs in Denver are expected to reach the…
UNITED STATES — With the previously anticipated Sunday night system now officially off the table, attention has shifted to a new potential winter threat developing for mid next week — and the European model is taking a noticeably colder and more aggressive stance than its American counterpart. The latest ECMWF guidance paints a wintry scenario…
UNITED STATES — A notable disagreement has emerged in the forecast for Sunday night into Monday, as the AI-driven European model (ECMWF AIFS) is tracking a significantly farther-north snowstorm compared to nearly every other major solution. While most traditional guidance keeps the system suppressed to the south — focusing heavier snow offshore or across the…
UNITED STATES — A multi-day severe weather outbreak is unfolding across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast, with thunderstorms expected to intensify from west Texas and Oklahoma today, spreading into eastern Texas, Louisiana, and eventually the central and eastern Gulf Coast states by Sunday. Forecasters have outlined a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) to…
UTAH — Confidence is increasing that parts of northern Utah could see their first meaningful valley snowfall of the season next week, as forecast models come into stronger agreement on a sharp cold front sweeping into the state by Wednesday morning. According to the latest National Blend of Models (NBM) 2.5 km guidance, rain is…
UNITED STATES — While much of the country is expected to ride out a generally mild pattern through late February and into early March, new longer-range European model guidance is hinting at a potential colder turn during the back half of March, particularly across the central and northern United States. The latest ECMWF 14-day ensemble…
CALIFORNIA — A prolonged and powerful winter pattern is poised to unload massive snowfall totals across the Sierra Nevada over the next week, with some high-elevation locations potentially surpassing 100 inches of accumulation if current projections verify. Latest ECMWF (European) model guidance through February 22 shows a broad swath of extreme snow totals stretching the…
MARYLAND — Nearly three weeks after a single significant winter storm swept through the Mid-Atlantic, much of the region is still blanketed in measurable snow — an unusual and impressive sight for mid-February outside of the higher elevations. Current snow depth analysis shows that areas across western Maryland, northern Virginia, Washington D.C., and parts of…
UNITED STATES — The latest 00Z European (EURO) model run, about 120 hours out, is keeping a significant winter storm signal alive for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast — with a heavy snow axis stretching from central Pennsylvania through northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, and into southern New England. While still several days away and…