Author: Colton Hayes

TEXARKANA, Texas — A formal Mesoscale Discussion has been issued with a 60 percent watch probability for northeast Texas, far southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas, signaling that a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is likely to be issued shortly after storms initiate early this Tuesday evening, May 5. The discussion, valid until 8:15 PM CDT,…

MIAMI, Florida — The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to produce 9 to 13 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, according to an outlook updated April 9, 2026. Overall seasonal energy is expected to run below normal, with the Gulf of Mexico facing a much below normal activity…

MIAMI, Florida — An unusually warm Caribbean Sea running three weeks ahead of the typical ocean heat average for this time of year is raising concern about early-season tropical development near the southeastern United States before the traditional peak of hurricane season even arrives. With dry, hot and sunny weather forecast to continue across the…

LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas — Tuesday’s tornado threat across Arkansas is entering its most critical window, with a warm front reinforced by an outflow boundary from last night’s storms now combining to enhance low-level spin across a hatched tornado probability zone covering the entire state from Fort Smith and Mena east through Little Rock, Conway, Jonesboro…

LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas — The most dangerous window of Tuesday’s Arkansas severe weather event is arriving this evening, with the greatest hail and tornado threat concentrated in a red-circled zone covering Little Rock, Batesville, Arkadelphia and the Memphis corridor as intense supercells develop in a moderately unstable and highly sheared environment. A formal Slight Risk…

BIRMINGHAM, Alabama — Tornado probabilities across north and central Alabama have been formally upgraded for Wednesday, May 6, with the severe weather outlook now showing an Enhanced Risk Level 3 centered over Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville and Gadsden and a 15 to 29 percent tornado probability with EF2 or stronger tornadoes specifically possible. The primary severe…

LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas — The much-anticipated northern Arkansas tornado and hail threat has largely failed to materialize through Tuesday evening, with storms developing on the northern fringe of the instability zone rather than tapping into the richest CAPE and producing the organized supercells forecasters were watching for. However, the event is not over. Additional storm…

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Wednesday brings two distinct rounds of wet weather to Virginia, Maryland and Washington D.C., separated by a midday break before scattered and potentially heavier storms arrive in the afternoon. Outdoor plans across Fairfax, Montgomery County, Prince George’s County and the D.C. metro should account for rain from the morning commute through the…

JACKSON, Mississippi — Wednesday afternoon and evening is shaping up as a genuinely dangerous severe weather period across Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama, with supercells expected to develop and take advantage of an environment where the Supercell Composite reaches 20.4, a PDS TOR hazard flag is active and CAPE values at the lowest 0 degrees Celsius…

KANSAS CITY, Missouri — A positively tilted trough combining with a surface cold front drifting across the middle of the country is generating three consecutive days of severe weather across the Central United States, with a Slight Risk in place each day from Monday, May 4 through Wednesday, May 6. Each day carries a distinct…