JACKSON, Mississippi — A potent severe weather environment is in place across southwest Mississippi and the southern fringe of Dixie Alley, with strong divergence and difluence at 300 mb, the nose of the 850 mb jet positioned directly over the threat area, and surface-based CAPE values running at 2,000 to 2,500 joules per kilogram across…
JACKSON, Mississippi — Wednesday’s severe weather event across Mississippi exceeded meteorological expectations in ways that mattered most. Models underperformed significantly on both thermodynamics and kinematics, with both overperforming on the actual day, driving a more intense and localized tornado threat than the setup suggested on paper. Long-tracked, likely intense and possibly violent tornadoes occurred in…
HAMMOND, Louisiana — The weather models failed significantly on Wednesday evening across the Hammond, Louisiana corridor, missing the actual low-level wind shear by a dramatic margin and directly contributing to why multiple strong and violent tornadoes occurred in an area where the forecast suggested a much lower threat. The observed winds from the Hammond radar…
MONTGOMERY, Alabama — Rain covers much of Alabama just before midnight with all storms currently below severe limits, but a tornado watch remains in effect for South Alabama until 6:00 AM CDT Thursday, May 7, 2026. The overall severe threat is low with fading instability values, and the greatest immediate concern has shifted to flooding….
DES MOINES, Iowa — The Northern Corn Belt is heading into one of its most critical agricultural windows under a pattern that is forecast to run much drier than normal over the next 10 days, and Pacific Ocean analogs pointing into June suggest the dry trend is unlikely to reverse quickly. Some areas will receive…
CHARLOTTE, North Carolina — The most rainfall in nearly three months is possible tonight into early Thursday across the Carolinas, but even the best-case totals will not come close to ending the drought gripping the region. Anything above 0.50 inches would be more than the area has seen in almost two months, yet ending the…
TAMPA, Florida — Hurricane Irma made its presence felt across Florida and the broader Southeast on Sunday night, September 10, 2017, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a center location at 27.5 degrees North, 81.9 degrees West as of the 11 PM EDT Advisory 48 from the National Hurricane Center. The storm was…
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas — A significant tornado or two are now possible this evening across Arkansas, including the Little Rock area. Supercells are forecast to erupt northwest of Little Rock by 5 PM, capable of producing tornadoes and very large hail. The greatest corridor of tornado potential is focused on central and northeast Arkansas this…
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas — A supercell-capable severe weather pattern is setting up across Arkansas and neighboring states this evening. Atmospheric data from Little Rock draws direct comparisons to the April 11, 2022 outbreak that produced 69 large hail reports and 9 tornadoes across the lower Mississippi Valley. Today’s wind shear is actually stronger than April…
TEXARKANA, Texas — A formal Mesoscale Discussion has been issued with a 60 percent watch probability for northeast Texas, far southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas, signaling that a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch is likely to be issued shortly after storms initiate early this Tuesday evening, May 5. The discussion, valid until 8:15 PM CDT,…