ST. LOUIS, Missouri — A significant tornado outbreak is expected today across the Ohio Valley and Mid-South, with millions of people at risk from multiple rounds of supercells capable of producing strong to violent tornadoes starting as early as 3 to 4 PM. The core of the highest-end threat — where EF3 or stronger tornadoes…
POPLAR BLUFF, Missouri — The severe weather focus is sharpening on southeastern Missouri tonight, where tornado-warned storms are ongoing in an environment of favorable shear vectors and potent thermodynamics that could produce a few tornadoes in the deep forest of southeast Missouri. Meanwhile, the Arkansas warm sector — largely untouched by convection through the evening…
JACKSON, Mississippi — The atmospheric cap that has been suppressing storm development across the Mid-South through Monday afternoon is expected to break within the next couple of hours, and when it does, isolated to scattered severe storm development will take place across the region. The more robust storms that develop will be capable of producing…
EVANSVILLE, Indiana — A serious flooding situation is developing across southern Indiana and Illinois after a corridor of 3 to 5 inches or more of rain fell across the region over the past 24 hours — and the rain is not finished. Additional locally heavy rainfall is expected across southern Indiana from late Tuesday evening…
MIAMI, Florida — For the first time in what forecasters describe as a very long while, longer-range models are showing consistent signals for above average precipitation across Florida through early June. The ECMWF extended ensemble, initialized April 27, shows a 46-day QPF anomaly that puts Florida on the wet side of normal through the June…
NASHVILLE, Tennessee — The overnight severe weather threat has split cleanly into two very different stories as Tuesday morning approaches. North of a defined boundary running from the St. Louis corridor through Cincinnati and into the Mid-Atlantic, the severe weather threat has exited the area and conditions are clearing. South of that line — across…
NASHVILLE, Tennessee — Forecasters are raising the alert level for Tennessee and into Kentucky tonight, where a combination of intense low-level shear and moderate instability is creating a conditional but real tornado threat within the next 2 to 4 hours. The environment is not clean — some low-level inhibition remains in place and deep-layer shear…
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Rain has been hard to come by across the Mid-Atlantic since last summer, and this month’s precipitation has run about half of normal — roughly 1.25 inches below average — while severe drought has taken hold across much of the region. Wednesday offers the best opportunity to dent that deficit before April…
MEMPHIS, Tennessee — The main severe weather event is now getting underway across the central United States, and the picture is evolving exactly as forecasters anticipated — messy and disorganized on the north side, capped but promising to the south. The afternoon hours are being led by hailstorms across the region, with the more significant…
WASHINGTON, D.C. — A cooler-than-normal weather pattern is taking root across the eastern half of the United States and looks durable through the first seven to ten days of May. The longer-range models describing this setup are not using spring language — they are describing a pattern with a distinctly winter appearance, featuring a large…